Canadian Wheat Board

Newsroom

2010

Wet weather severely impairs crop prospects across the Prairies

Eight to 12 million acres unseeded; wheat acres lowest in almost 40 years

June 11, 2010

Winnipeg - Exceptional spring rainfall will severely impact this year's wheat, durum and barley production, leaving leave more than eight million acres unseeded, the CWB announced today in its preliminary crop forecast.

"The excess rain has washed away the hope of seeding for many farmers," said Bruce Burnett, CWB director of weather and market analysis, at the annual CWB grain industry briefing this morning. "In many cases, these acres are just lost and will not see any crop."

In total, between 8.25 million and 12.5 million acres of farmland will go unseeded across the Prairies. The CWB is projecting the western Canadian seeded area for all wheat at 19.15 million acres, the smallest area since 1971 and an 18 per cent reduction from 2009-10. The area seeded to durum is expected to be 3.4 million acres, the smallest area since 1980 and down 39 per cent from 2009-10. The barley crop is looking at its lowest acreage since 1965. About 6.6 million acres of barley will be seeded, down 20 per cent from last year.

"Many areas got off to an early seeding start, but the extraordinary rains halted progress. Significant amounts of farmland remain unseedable at this late date," Burnett said. "On the other hand, some previously dry regions where planting took place early have benefitted from the rains."

The situation is particularly bad in Saskatchewan, where 36 per cent of the crop remains unseeded and prospects for additional seeding are dim. Overall across the Prairies, seeding of major crops is about 78 per cent complete. Normally at this time of year, seeding is entirely complete.

Overall, total wheat production is forecast at 18.9 million tonnes, including 3.16 million tonnes of durum, and barley production is forecast at 7.64. The all-wheat yield is projected at 37.5 bushels per acres, above the 10-year average of 34.6 but below yields for the last two years. Likewise, durum yields are forecast at 34.5 bushels per acre, above the 10-year average of 31 but below last year's yields of 36.5. Barley yields are projected at 57.5 bushels per acre, also above the 10-year average of 54 but slightly below last year's yields of 58. Crop development is behind normal, raising some concern of frost damage late in the season.

The United States Department of Agriculture yesterday forecast world wheat production at 668.5 million tonnes for 2010, the third largest on record. This number, however, does not account for the seeding difficulties on the Canadian Prairies. In Europe and the Middle East, growing conditions are relatively good, raising expectations for an above average crop. In Western Australia, dry conditions are impairing seeding progress.

A weather and crop prospects summary is attached. The Webcast of the weather and crop conditions briefing (including slides) will be available on the CWB Web site, www.cwb.ca, for 90 days.

Controlled by western Canadian farmers, the CWB is the largest wheat and barley marketer in the world. One of Canada's biggest exporters, the Winnipeg-based organization sells grain to over 70 countries and returns all sales revenue, less marketing costs, to farmers.

--30--

For more information, please contact:
John Lyons
CWB media relations manager
Tel: (204) 983-3101
Cell: (204) 223-4281
john_lyons@cwb.ca

CWB Industry Briefing - 2010

June 11, 2010

Western Canada

April showers are usually expected to bring May flowers. In 2010, April and May rainfall have brought serious consequences. The excessive moisture this spring has resulted in the slowest planting pace in recent history and an expectation for the largest abandoned acreage in Western Canada since government programs in the early 1970's intentionally idled acreage.

Although there still exists some time for planting to resume, the soggy field conditions are expected to cause between eight and 12 million acres to be abandoned in 2010. Most of the acreage left unplanted will be in Saskatchewan, although some areas in Manitoba and Alberta will also struggle to complete planting. Although planting and excessive moisture problems have occurred in the past years, the scope and severity of the problem is on an unprecedented scale.

Current weather forecasts suggest that there may be little relief for farmers in Saskatchewan as a number of rain events are forecast to occur over the next 10 days. The areas that have fared the best during this spring are the regions where drought concerns were the highest. Western Saskatchewan and central and northern Alberta have managed to complete planting and have welcomed the additional moisture. Cool weather has also been a concern as late planted fields will need warm temperatures to mature before the first fall frost.

The 2010 planting season began on a positive note with above normal temperatures and an early start to planting in the southern growing areas. Dryness in central and northern Alberta and west central Saskatchewan was of great concern as the region had not recovered from an extensive drought in 2009. Temperatures were above 1 C to -5 C above normal in the eastern Prairies and close to normal in western regions.

The warm temperatures allowed planting to start in mid-to-late April. A series of late season rain and snowstorms helped replenish moisture in previously dry areas. Progress was ahead of normal by the beginning of May, with 15 per cent of the overall crop planted by May 3.

Progress continued in most areas through the third week of May, with about 64 per cent of the crop planted by May 25. Minimal progress has occurred since that date as a series of storms have dropped between 50 and 200 millimetres of precipitation over most of Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Overall planting is currently estimated at 78 per cent complete for the Prairie region with Saskatchewan progress at only 70 per cent. Dry weather is urgently needed across the eastern Prairies in order to maintain the condition of the crops that have already been planted.

Prospects are low that additional acres will be planted in Saskatchewan before the extended crop insurance deadlines. Additional barley and oat area may be planted before the end of June, but even the prospects for shorter-season crop planting have diminished.

The seeded area estimates contained in Table A are based on reports from CWB Farm Business Representatives and weather conditions. The area sown to wheat in Western Canada is expected to be the lowest since 1971 at 19.15 million acres. This is 18 per cent lower than last year. Spring wheat acreage is projected to decrease by 9.8 per cent to 15.2 million acres. Durum acreage is also expected to be lower in 2010, with the current estimate 39 per cent lower at 3.4 million acres. The next acreage report from Statistics Canada will be released on June 23, 2010.

Table B shows the yields and Table C shows the resulting production using a weather based risk model developed by the CWB. The drought model has responded favourably to the increased moisture conditions and does not account for detrimental moisture issues such as disease and fertility issues that are common in wet years. For spring wheat, the weather model indicates that the most likely yields fall within the range of 32.7 and 39.7 bushels per acre, with the most likely yield being 37.5 bushels per acre. Durum yield expectations are also above average, with the most likely yield forecast at 34.5 bushels per acre. Barley yields are also expected to be above average at 57.5 bushels per acre.

Production estimates on these modeled yields (Table C), show that all wheat production for Western Canada is expected to decrease to 18.9 million tonnes, with durum production dropping to 3.2 million tonnes. Spring wheat production is expected to reach 14.8 million tonnes, down by close to 3 million tonnes from 2009. Barley production is expected to decrease to 7.6 million tonnes from 10.3 million tonnes last year.

World outlook

Corn and soybean planting conditions were close to ideal this year with planting for both crops ahead of normal through the spring season. Recent heavy rains have delayed the end of soybean planting and progress is now at the five-year-average level. Crop conditions remain very good for the corn crop, with the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reporting 76 per cent of the crop in good to excellent condition. Hard red winter (HRW) wheat harvesting is underway in Oklahoma and Texas, with below average protein and above average yields reported. Production of HRW is expected to be similar to that of 2009 due to improved yields. Overall winter wheat production is expected to drop 40.3 million bushels (1.1 million tonnes) from last year. Wet conditions in Montana and the Dakotas have resulted in some planting delays, but most of the intended spring wheat and durum area managed to get sown. U.S. wheat output is expected to drop to 53.6 million tonnes – a decrease of nearly 7.7 million tonnes from 2009-10.

The production prospects in the countries of the Black Sea region are slightly above average, but lower than the record levels seen in 2009-10. European conditions remain mixed, with excessive rainfall in eastern areas of the region. Western Australia remains dry in most areas and is in need of rains to boost prospects for the 2010 crop. Conversely, the eastern states of Australia report mostly good early season conditions. Wet conditions across North Africa during the growing season resulted in the second consecutive year of above average crop prospects, especially for durum wheat. The Middle East and Turkey have seen good growing conditions. The USDA's world wheat estimate for 2010 is significantly lower than in 2009 levels. Production is still expected to reach 668.5 million tonnes, which would be the third-largest crop on record.

Table A

Western Canada
sown area
(million acres)
	Statistics Canada		CWB
	March	2009	2010	% Change
	Intentions
All Wheat	22.15	23.24	19.15	-17.6%
Spring Wheat	17.86	16.66	15.15	-9.1%
Winter Wheat	0.60	0.92	0.60	-34.4%
Durum	3.6	5.66	3.40	-39.9%
Barley	7.83	8.18	6.60	-19.3%

Table B

Western Canada
CWB weather model yields
	10th	50th	90th
	Percentile	Percentile	Percentile
	(bu/ac)	(bu/ac)	(bu/ac)
All Wheat	33.0	37.5	39.8
Spring Wheat	32.7	37.4	39.7
Winter Wheat	51.0	54.6	56.4
Durum	29.6	34.5	36.9
Barley	52.7	57.5	59.8

Table C

Western Canada
Production
(million tonnes)
	Statistics Canada		CWB
	5 Year Average	2009		2010
			10th	50th	90th
			Percentile	Percentile	Percentile
All Wheat	23.08	24.3	16.5	18.9	20.1
Spring Wheat	17.15	17.8	13.0	14.8	15.8
Winter Wheat	0.95	1.1	0.8	0.9	0.9
Durum	4.79	5.4	2.7	3.2	3.4
Barley	10.19	8.9	7.0	7.6	7.9

Back to top